The Point of No Return

Organized by Global Warming:FACT, Big Red Go Green, WISPIRG, and 20/20 Vision, the "Horrors of Global Warming" took place on Bascom Hill on Tuesday, October 24th and Wednesday, October 25th, 2006. It involved a series of signs with the following progression of events, some in the past, some occurring now, and some projected in the future (the last being an irreversible "point of no return") as a result of human-induced global warming. Below is provided a more detailed description of each event, along with sources of information.

1. It’s easy to ignore: The consequences of our actions are not immediately felt by our climate system, but years or decades down the road instead. However, this is not an excuse to ignore the problem.
2. The first species goes extinct (the Golden Toad 1989): In the mountain forests of Monteverde, Costa Rica, the Golden Toad went extinct, as the cloud line, which kept the forest moist enough for survival, rose dramatically over a 10 year span due to warming of Pacific Ocean surface waters. The Golden Toad was the first documented victim of global warming.
• Source: M. Crump, In Search of the Golden Frog (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1998)
3. 65% of the world’s coral reef is destroyed: A 2002 panel of 17 of the world’s top coral reef researches concluded that catastrophic damage will occur by 2030, and even the most protected reefs will be badly damaged by 2050. Coral reefs are among the most diverse ecosystems in the world—one in every four ocean-dweller spends at least part of their life cycle in a coral reef.
• Source: J. Woodford, “Great? Barrier Reef,” Australian Geographic 76 (2004): 37-55.
• Source: P. Pockley, “Human Activities Threaten Coral Reefs with ‘Dire Effects,’” Australasian Science (January-February 2003):29-32
4. 50-80% of the water supply of the Western U.S. is lost, devastating both cities and agriculture: The mountain ranges of the Western U.S. hold a vast snowpack that provides 50-80% of the year’s water supply. This snow pack is steadily declining each year, threatening massive water shortages needed to grow crops and supply the complex needs of cities. While just one example, this is a concern in many regions worldwide.
• Source: Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting, National Atlas of the United States 2006. http://nationalatlas.gov/articles/climate/a_snow.html
• Source: R. F. Service, “As the West Goes Dry,” Science 303 (2003):1124-27.
5. 570 million people worldwide perish or flee as sudden sea level rises flood their homes: Today, 2 out of 3 people on Earth live within fifty miles of the coast. Rapid glacial melting and thermal expansion result in a gradual but still worrisome sea level rise. The bigger unknown is the West Antarctic ice sheet, which is tenuously anchored to the bottom of a shallow sea, and the ice it holds back —should it destabilize and detach, global sea levels could rise anywhere from 6 inches to 23 feet.
• Source: J. T. Swing, “What Future for the Oceans?” Foreign Affairs (September-October 2003): 139-52.
• Source: J. Hansen, “Our Planet’s Keeper” discussion. http://aerosols.ucsd.edu/classes/CHEM173/NYRB-30May2006.pdf
• Source: R. A. Bindschadler et al., “Tidally Controlled Stick-Slip Discharge of a West Antarctic Ice Stream,” Science 301 (2003):1087-89.
6. The Point of No Return: we tip the global climate balance, causing a sudden, irreversible climate shift that devastates all of life and civilization as we know it: The most probable of such scenarios is the collapse of the Gulf Stream, resulting from freshwater from melting ice diluting the salty ocean current and disrupting its circulation. The result could be a sudden, 10-15F temperature drop in non-tropical regions (i.e. where most people in the world live, including the U.S.) that would devastate the food supply as well as many other aspects of life that today are taken for granted, and destabilize social and political structures because of it. Such an event may not be likely, but it is certainly plausible, and the mere fact that we have no idea what level of warming could potentially trigger it means that we have no choice but to try to stop the warming immediately. Thus, the longer we wait to take action, the more likely such an event becomes. Think about it this way: pretend that we know that the Gulf Stream will suddenly collapse and we know precisely when—what will be the source of that one final emission of carbon dioxide that pushes it over the edge? An animal? A power plant? Your car?
• Source: P. Schwartz and D. Randall, “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security,” October 2003, www.ems.org/climate/pentagon_climatechange.pdf
• Source: A. S. Sarkisyan, “Major Advances and Problems in Modeling Long-Term World Ocean Climate Changes,” Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Ocean Physics 38 (2002): 664-81.
• Source: G. Clarke, “Superlakes, Megafloods, and Abrupt Climate Change,” Science 301 (2003): 922-23.
• Source: J. T. Swing, “What Future for the Oceans?” Foreign Affairs (September-October 2003): 139-52.

Luckily, we can take action and take back control of our global future--all while barely lifting a finger. But we can't wait any longer: the longer we wait, the more we're at risk.

All the necessary tools are in place; the only piece that's missing is the will of the people

For more info on joining the cause here on campus (Global Warming: FACT (the Fight Against Climate Change Today), Big Red Go Green, WISPIRG, and/or 20/20 Vision), email Dan Chavas: drchavas@wisc.edu for more information

If you would like to discuss/dispute any of the above information or any issue related to this UW-Madison event specifically or to global warming in general, please contact Dan Chavas: drchavas@wisc.edu

The more discussion the better!

Check out: Common misinformation regarding the Global Warming issue

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